Real Estate in January Is Quiet, But the Seattle Market Isn’t Sleeping

January is a strange month for the housing market. Everything feels slow on the surface with fewer listings, fewer showings, fewer conversations happening out loud. This year, the weather hasn’t helped the illusion — it’s been unusually warm, the kind of January that feels more like early spring than the dead of winter. The kind of weather that makes me think about pruning trees, starting projects early, and getting a jump on things I usually put off.

And that’s actually a pretty good metaphor for the housing market in January. I’ve been spending a lot of time staring at real estate data lately. Not because it’s thrilling, but because I’m getting ready to sell my own house, and We have a couple of clients doing the same. When real decisions are on the line, you have to pay attention — especially this time of year, when the numbers can be misleading if you don’t know how to read them.

Why January Data Feels Scary

At first glance, the January data looks dramatic. Median sale price is down to around $885,000 and homes are taking roughly 27 days to sell. Compared to the chaos of the last few years, things feel slow and cautious and even a little uncomfortable. But here’s the thing that almost nobody tells you: January data is always backward-looking. Most of the homes reflected in January stats closed in December, which means they actually went under contract in November. What we’re seeing isn’t how buyers and sellers feel now. It’s a snapshot of how cautious people were late last fall.

That distinction matters.

What January data really shows is a market that slowed down and adjusted. Buyers took their time. Sellers became more realistic. Pricing came back toward earth after a period of extreme volatility. That’s not a market disappearing — it’s a market catching its breath. And historically, January is often the moment when things begin to wake up again. Even if it is a little quiet, uneven, and very local.

Why You Have to Zoom In

One of the biggest mistakes people make is only paying attention to national headlines or citywide averages. Real estate doesn’t move that way. It moves block by block. In my own neighborhood, I’m seeing two things happening at the same time. On one hand, there’s a lot of homes that sat through the fall that now have 100 days on market which are finally going pending. That makes sense. Some of those homes were overpriced and as expectations reset after the new year, buyers are stepping in to grab deals.

At the same time, I’m also seeing several homes that just listed last week and already have offer review dates. That tells me listing agents are confident. And confidence usually means demand is starting to come back, at least in pockets where pricing and presentation are dialed in.

Both things can be true at once. That’s what a transitional market looks like.

January Is for Pruning

Winter pruning is a good metaphor for this month because it isn’t about making things look good immediately. It’s about cutting back while everything is dormant so that growth can happen later. You remove what’s dead, unnecessary, or distracting so the healthy parts have room to thrive.

The housing market works the same way. January strips away a lot of noise. The frantic energy fades. The unrealistic expectations fall off. What’s left is more honest. Buyers are careful. Sellers are thoughtful. And the decisions people make now tend to shape what the spring market actually looks like. For homeowners thinking about selling this year, January isn’t about panic. It’s about preparation. This is the moment to clean things up, fix the small issues that add friction during inspections, and decide what’s worth investing in — and what isn’t. Often, one intentional improvement matters more than a long list of half-finished projects. Buyers don’t remember every detail, but they do remember how a house made them feel.

About That Zillow Headline

You may have seen headlines recently saying that nearly four out of five homes in the Seattle metro area lost value over the past year, according to a recent analysis from Zillow. That sounds dramatic, and technically it’s true — but it also needs context. What we’re mostly seeing is the market cooling off after the rapid run-up in 2022 and early 2023. Many homes were priced at absolute peak levels, and as interest rates stayed higher, prices adjusted. That doesn’t mean values collapsed. In many cases, homes are simply worth a bit less than they were at the very top. It’s also important to remember that many homes are still well above their pre-2020 values. This isn’t a rewind to some distant past. It’s a reset from a very unusual moment. This is a good reminder that real estate is not a great short-term investment unless you’re very lucky or very intentional. If you stay in your house for 7-10 years, those swings tend to smooth out.

Quiet Doesn’t Mean Nothing Is Happening

January rarely announces itself. There’s no frenzy. No headlines screaming opportunity or disaster. But that doesn’t mean nothing is happening. This is a time when people quietly decide to move. Sometimes it’s just a conversation. Sometimes it’s a project you finally start. Sometimes it’s a house you begin to look at differently.

The market isn’t loud yet. But it isn’t asleep either. And if you know how to read it — patiently, locally, and without panic — January can tell you a lot about what’s coming next.